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	<meta name="author" content="Minh Kieu">

	<meta name="keywords" content="big data, urban dynamics">

	<title>Big Data and Dynamic Simulation of Cities</title>


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	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** Title ************************

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	<section class="title" id="title" data-background-image="../figures/title-city.jpg">

	<div class="whitebackground2">

	<h5>ABMUS 2019</h5>

	<h1 style="font-size: 45px;">Reducing the impacts of uncertainty in agent-based models for real-time applications</h1>
	<hr/>
	<h3> <strong>MINH KIEU, </strong> Nicolas Malleson, Alison Heppenstall, Andrew West and Kevin Minors</h3>
	<h4>University of Leeds and Alan Turing Institute</h4>
	<h4><a href="http://dust.leeds.ac.uk">dust.leeds.ac.uk</a></h4>
	<hr/>
	<p style="text-align:center;font-size:25px">These slides and abstract: <a href="https://urban-analytics.github.io/dust/presentations.html">https://urban-analytics.github.io/dust/presentations.html</a></p>

	<a href="https://europa.eu/european-union/index_en">
	<img style="float:left;padding:10px 50px 10px 50px;width:70px; height:auto;" src="../figures/LOGO_EU.jpg"/>
	</a>

	<a href="http://www.leeds.ac.uk/">
	<img style="float:center;padding:10px;width:150px; height:auto;" src="../figures/uol_logo.gif"/>
	</a>

	<a href="http://www.turing.ac.uk/">
	<img style="float:right;padding:10px;width:150px; height:auto;" src="../figures/LOGO_TURING.png"/>
	</a>


	</div>

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** Bus trajectory ************************

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	<section id="bus-trajectory" data-transition="fade">

	<h2>Bus GPS trajectories</h2>

	<img src="../figures/bus-trajectory.png"

	alt="bus trajectory" />

	</section>

	<!-- ***********************************************************

	*********** Bus bunching **************************
	******************************************************* -->
	<section id="bus-trajectory" data-transition="fade">

	<h2>Bus bunching</h2>

	<img src="../figures/bus-bunching.png"

	alt="bus bunching" />

	</section>



	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** BusSim model video************************

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	<section id="pf-bussim-video">

	<h2>Bus Simulation</h2>

	<video controls autoplay>

	<source data-src="../videos/bussim-video.mp4" type="video/mp4"/>

	Your browser does not support the video tag.

	</video>

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** BusSim model flowchart ************************

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	<section id="bussim-flowchart" data-transition="fade">

	<h2>BusSim Flowchart</h2>

	<img src="../figures/bussim-flowchart.png"

	alt="BusSim" />

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** problems with ABMs ************************

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	<section id="prob-divergence"

	data-background-video="../videos/skylines_bus_stop.mp4"

	data-background-video-muted

	data-background-video-loop="loop">


	<div class="whitebackground fragment">

	<h2>Uncertainty</h2>

	<p>The reality is dynamic. </p>
	<p>The reality is stochastic </p>
	<p>There are unobserved variables </p>

	</div>

	<div class="whitebackground fragment">

	<p>There is no systematic mechanism to incorporate new data into agent-based models</p>

	</div>

	</section>


	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** Data Assimilation ************************

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	<section id="how_DA_works" data-transition="fade">

	<h2>Solution: Data Assimilation </h2>

	<img src="../figures/data-assimilation.png"

	alt="DA" />

	<div class="whitebackground fragment">

	<p>Try to improve estimates of the true system state by combining:</p>

	<p class="l2">Noisy, real-world observations</p>

	<p class="l2">Model estimates of the system state</p>

	</div>

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** PF-1 ************************

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	<section id="PF-1" data-transition="fade">
	<img src="../figures/PF-1.png"

	alt="PF-1" />

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** PF-2 ************************

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	<section id="PF-2" data-transition="fade">
	<img src="../figures/PF-2.png"

	alt="PF-2" />

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	<!-*****************************************************************

	*********** PF-3 ************************

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	<section id="PF-3" data-transition="fade">
	<img src="../figures/PF-3.png"

	alt="PF-3" />

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** PF-4 ************************

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	<section id="PF-4" data-transition="fade">
	<img src="../figures/PF-4.png"

	alt="PF-4" />

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	*********** PF-5 ************************

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	<section id="PF-5" data-transition="fade">
	<img src="../figures/PF-5.png"

	alt="PF-5" />

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	*********** PF-6 ************************

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	<section id="PF-6" data-transition="fade">
	<img src="../figures/PF-6.png"

	alt="PF-6" />

	</section>

	<!-- ***********************************************************

	*********** BusSim Framework ************************

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	<section id="bussim-framework" data-transition="fade">

	<h2>Data Assimilation on Bus Simulation</h2>

	<img src="../figures/bussim-framework.png"

	alt="BusSim framework" />

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** Basecase scenario ************************

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	<section id="no-calibration" data-transition="fade">

	<h2>Basecase scenario: No calibration</h2>
	<img src="../figures/BusSim-no-calibration.png"

	alt="Basecase scenario" />

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** Calibration scenario ************************

	***************************************************************** -->

	<section id="calibration" data-transition="fade">
	<h2>Calibration scenario</h2>
	<img src="../figures/BusSim-calibration.png"

	alt="Calibration scenario" />

	</section>

	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** PF scenario ************************

	***************************************************************** -->

	<section id="BusSim-PF" data-transition="fade">
	<h2>Calibration + Data Assimilation scenario</h2>
	<img src="../figures/BusSim-PF.png"

	alt="BusSim-PF" />

	</section>



	<!-- *********************************************************

	*********** PF on bussim ************************

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	<section id="pf-bussim-pf-video">

	<h2>Bus Simulation with a Particle Filter</h2>

	<video controls autoplay>

	<source data-src="../videos/bussim-pf-video.mp4" type="video/mp4"/>

	Your browser does not support the video tag.

	</video>

	</section>


	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** Current large-scale city simulation *****************

	***************************************************************** -->

	<section id="othersimulation"

	data-background-video="../videos/matsim-singapore.mp4"

	data-background-video-muted

	data-background-video-loop="loop">


	<div class="whitebackground fragment">

	<p>MatSim Singapore takes 2 days to implement each scenario, even when using a cluster of 4 supercomputers (Anda, 2017) </p>
	</div>

	<div class="whitebackground fragment">

	<figure>
	<img data-src="../figures/emulator.png"/>

	</figure>
	</div>

	<div class="whitebackground fragment">

	<figure>
	<img data-src="../figures/dynamic-emulator.png"/>

	</figure>
	</div>

	</section>


	<section id="moreinformation1" data-transition="fade" data-background-image="https://erc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/content/pages/images/DUST_illustration_copyright-Shutterstock.jpg">

	<div class="whitebackground2">

	<h2>For more information about what we're doing</h2>

	<a href="https://erc.europa.eu/">

	<img class="right" style="width:100px;" data-src="../figures/LOGO_ERC.jpg" alt="ESRC Logo"/>

	</a>

	<p>Data Assimilation for Agent-Based Models (<a href="http://dust.leeds.ac.uk">dust</a>)</p>

	<p class="l2"><a href="http://dust.leeds.ac.uk/">http://dust.leeds.ac.uk/</a></p>

	<p class="l2">Main aim: create new methods for dynamically assimilating data into agent-based models.</p>

	<p>Uncertainty in agent-based models for smart city forecasts</p>

	<a href="https://www.turing.ac.uk/">

	<img class="right" style="width:100px;" data-src="../figures/LOGO_TURING.png" alt="Turing Logo"/>

	</a>

	<p class="l2"><a href="https://www.turing.ac.uk/research/research-projects/uncertainty-agent-based-models-smart-city-forecasts">turing.ac.uk</a></p>

	<p class="l2">Developing methods that can be used to better understand uncertainty in individual-level models of cities</p>

	<p>Bringing the Social City to the Smart City</p>

	<p class="l2"><a href="https://alisonheppenstall.co.uk/research/bringing-the-social-city-to-the-smart-city/">https://alisonheppenstall.co.uk/research/bringing-the-social-city-to-the-smart-city/</a></p>

	</div>
	</section>


	<!-- *****************************************************************

	*********** Thanks ************************

	***************************************************************** -->

	<section class="title" id="thanks" data-background-image="../figures/virtual_city.jpeg">

	<div class="whitebackground2">


	<a href="http://www.leeds.ac.uk/">

	<img style="float:right;padding:10px;width:150px; height:auto;" src="../figures/uol_logo.gif"/>

	</a>

	<h5>ABMUS 2019<br/>14nd May, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada</h5>



	<hr/>

	<h2>Reducing the impacts of uncertainty in agent-based models for real-time applications</h2>

	<hr/>

	<h3>Minh Kieu</h3>

	<!-- <h4>Research Fellow</h4> -->

	<h4>Leeds Institute of Data Analytics, University of Leeds</h4>

	<hr/>

	<h4 style="text-align:center">These slides:<br/><a href="https://leminhkieu.github.io/p/2019-ABMUS.html">https://leminhkieu.github.io/p/2019-ABMUS.html</a></h4>

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